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Based on past observations, we can infer the parameters of this random process, and from there evaluate the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow. The sunrise problem was first introduced in the 18th century by Pierre-Simon Laplace , who treated it by means of his rule of succession. Prior to knowing of any sunrises, one is completely ignorant of the value of p.

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Laplace represented this prior ignorance by means of a uniform probability distribution on p. Given the value of p , and no other information relevant to the question of whether the sun will rise tomorrow, the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow is p. But we are not "given the value of p ".

What we are given is the observed data: the sun has risen every day on record.

Sunrise and sunset times in Seattle, WA

Laplace inferred the number of days by saying that the universe was created about years ago, based on a young-earth creationist reading of the Bible. To find the conditional probability distribution of p given the data, one uses Bayes theorem , which some call the Bayes—Laplace rule. Having found the conditional probability distribution of p given the data, one may then calculate the conditional probability, given the data, that the sun will rise tomorrow. That conditional probability is given by the rule of succession.

The plausibility that the sun will rise tomorrow increases with the number of days on which the sun has risen so far. Specifically, assuming p has an a-priori distribution that is uniform over the interval [0,1], and that, given the value of p , the sun independently rises each day with probability p , the desired conditional probability is:.

Expressed as a percentage, this is approximately a However, Laplace recognized this to be a misapplication of the rule of succession through not taking into account all the prior information available immediately after deriving the result:. A reference class problem arises: the plausibility inferred will depend on whether we take the past experience of one person, of humanity, or of the earth. A consequence is that each referent would hold different plausibility of the statement.


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In Bayesianism, any probability is a conditional probability given what one knows. That varies from one person to another.

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Alternatively, one could say that a sun is selected from all the possible stars every day, being the star that one sees in the morning. The plausibility of the "sun will rise tomorrow" i.

One faces a similar reference class problem: which sample of stars should one use. All the stars? I have made some changes to manipulate the timestamp.

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Will tell you so. Same thing goes with sunset. I think I have the logic working. The code saves sunrise and setting values, at midnight. This way displaying the values the entire day. The sensors will start displaying values after the first midnight. Times are UTC so need to be time shifted for your timezone…. Hours of Daylight Configuration. DavidFW David July 11, , pm 1. I have the following configured and it works for displaying sunrise and sunset times.

Or is there some component?


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    DavidFW David July 12, , am 3. DavidFW David July 12, , am 5. DavidFW David July 12, , am 7. Gives me in the template editor which is correct. But different to the first one.

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    When I did both ways, I got DavidFW David July 12, , am 9. DavidFW David July 12, , am Yaml is picky lol. Validates now and restarting HA… And that did it! Tomahawk July 22, , am